A10

Joan Bryden
THE CANADIAN PRESS

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OTTAWA - The Conservatives' surprise byelection victory in Quebec has federal parties examining the electoral tea leaves - and wondering whether Stephen Harper may have finally found the elusive route to a majority through rural Quebec.

The prime minister's Quebec lieutenant, Public Works Minister Christian Paradis, certainly thinks so.

"I think it means that our party has traction in Quebec," Paradis said in an interview Tuesday.

He said it's always been his dream to win a majority by making inroads in Quebec. And Monday's upset in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup brings that dream one step closer to reality.

"I always thought that it was possible because (Bloc Quebecois Leader) Gilles Duceppe does not have the monopoly on Quebec values and the Liberals are out of touch."

The Tories won another byelection contest Monday in Nova Scotia, reclaiming a former Conservative stronghold. The NDP held on to a riding in British Columbia and the Bloc easily hung onto an east-end Montreal riding.

The Liberals were shut out, coming a distant third in each of the contests.

The largely rural Riviere du Loup riding, in Quebec's lower St. Lawrence region, had long been a Bloc bastion. A Tory victory was considered a longshot only a few weeks ago.

Ten months ago the idea would have seemed preposterous. Harper's Tories were flirting with single-digit support in Quebec after the prime minister issued scorched-earth denunciations of Liberal efforts to cobble together a coalition with "socialists and separatists." Far from gaining seats in the province, pundits were writing off Harper's hopes of holding on to the 10 seats the Tories have.

But his steady focus on the economy since then seems to have paid off. The Tories have climbed back into contention in the province while Liberal support has slumped.

Paradis maintained Monday's results demonstrate that many Quebecers - particularly in rural areas - are essentially fiscal conservatives who are satisfied with Harper's management of the economic recession.

Not so fast, countered Duceppe. He dismissed suggestions of a Tory breakthrough, pointing out that the Tories ran a distant fourth in Hochelaga, an east-end Montreal riding.

"Do electors find that the Harper government is very good across Quebec? No," he said.

Indeed, byelections are often unreliable predicters of how parties will fare in a general election. Turnout is usually abysmal (it ranged from a low of 22.3 per cent to a high of 36.6 per cent in Monday's four contests) and, because the survival of the government is not at stake, voters often cast ballots based on a host of local issues.

In Riviere du Loup, it no doubt helped that the Tory candidate was a popular local mayor, Berard Genereux, who was able to tap into support from Premier Jean Charest's powerful provincial Liberal machine.

And it likely didn't hurt that the Harper government handed out millions for highway reconstruction in the riding.

But if Riviere du Loup does herald potential big gains for the Conservatives elsewhere in rural Quebec, Harper will need to maintain his party's support outside the province if he's to finally achieve his coveted majority.

On that score, NDP national director Brad Lavigne argued that Harper got a wake up call in B.C., where the Tories lost ground in New Westminster-Coquitlam.

New Democrat Fin Donnelly racked up his party's largest-ever margin of victory - 14 points ahead of Tory Diana Dilworth - in what is usually a close-fought riding. And he did it, at least in part, by blaming the Harper government for the B.C. government's unpopular plan to harmonize the provincial sales tax with the federal GST.

As for the Liberals, Paradis maintained the byelection results demonstrate voters are unimpressed by rookie Leader Michael Ignatieff and his party's incessant criticism of everything the government does. He said they were particularly turned off by the Liberals' "politicization" of the H1N1 flu pandemic.

Marc Garneau, Ignatieff's Quebec lieutenant, did not disagree. He frankly admitted Monday "was not the best night for the Liberals," who were displaced by the NDP as second place finisher in both the Nova Scotia and Montreal ridings.