Poll Liberals slip but people still like Shawn Graham

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Chris Morris
Telegraph Journal

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FREDERICTON - Support for Premier Shawn Graham's Liberal government has slipped over the course of 2008, according to the most recent survey conducted by the polling firm, Corporate Research Associates Inc.

At the same time, the Progressive Conservatives saw in improvement in their numbers following the selection in October of David Alward as leader.

"I don't think the numbers are that surprising," Don Mills, president and CEO of Corporate Research Associates, said in an interview.

"The PCs now have a leader. What we find is traditional support for the parties will normalize after a period of time following an election. I think that's what we're seeing now."

The survey of 801 New Brunswickers, conducted between Nov. 13 and Dec. 2, suggests that 45 per cent of decided voters back the Liberals. That represents a significant decline from the 63 per cent support the Grits enjoyed in February of this year. It's also a decline, although less precipitous, from the 49 per cent support the Liberals scored in the last quarterly survey in August.

"It's the lowest point since they were elected," Mills said.

At the same time, Conservatives now have the backing of 38 per cent of decided voters, an increase from the 34 per cent showing they had in August.

Although support for his party seems to be declining, Shawn Graham's personal popularity improved over the last quarter.

The latest poll indicates that 42 per cent of voters prefer Graham for premier, an increase from the 37 per cent who gave him the nod in August.

In addition, the Liberal government's satisfaction rating is holding strong at 60 per cent, an increase from 53 per cent in the last survey in August.

Mills said the satisfaction numbers are important since they suggest that the Liberals still have majority support and would be re-elected if there was an election today.

However, the numbers do not take into account the results of a grim economic update released this week by Finance Minister Victor Boudreau which predicts a deficit of $285 million for the fiscal year.

"It doesn't take into account the economic statement," Mills said.

"Maybe next quarter they're going to get hammered on it. But right now, they're in pretty good shape given the fact the Tories finally have a leader."

Leopold Mallet, executive director of the New Brunswick Liberal Association, said he believes the government's agenda for tackling the global economic downturn will be well received by voters.

"People like what they see in Shawn Graham," Mallet said.

"They like the self-sufficiency agenda and they're buying into it."

Alward's leadership was endorsed by 25 per cent of voters, pulling up the Conservative numbers from 18 per cent in August - well before the party picked its new leader.

Conservative Paul Robichaud said his party is pleased with the poll results.

He noted that the number of people dissatisfied with the government increased over last year, and pointed to a seven-point margin between the parties.

"Our numbers are going up and the Liberals' numbers are going down," said the Shippagan MLA. "This is exactly where we wanted to be two years before the election. It is not a big margin."

And Robichaud dismissed numbers that show Premier Shawn Graham's personal popularity growing. He noted that former Premier Bernard Lord was more popular than Graham in the past election, but the Liberals formed the government.

"This is a very good poll for us," he concluded.

Mills said support for the NDP stabilized this quarter at 13 per cent of decided voters, while four per cent of decided voters said they prefer the Green Party, which has yet to pick a provincial leader.

The number of New Brunswick residents who are undecided, do not plan to vote, or refuse to state a preference currently stands at 38 per cent, a decline from 48 per cent in August.

The results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent survey of Atlantic Canadians. The results are considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.