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Rob Linke
Telegraph-Journal

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OTTAWA - It was the first major promise Prime Minister Stephen Harper made in the fall election campaign - one that resonated with truckers, farmers and fishermen hit by a year of record-high fuel prices.

A re-elected Conservative government would lower the federal excise tax on diesel fuel by 50 per cent, from four cents a litre to two cents, Harper pledged.

The tax was to be lowered gradually over four years. It would cost the federal treasury $600 million a year when fully implemented.

And it was a huge hit with the trucking, farming and fishing industries in New Brunswick.

Is keeping that pledge now in doubt?

Not according federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's office.

"There's no change," said Flaherty's spokesman Chisholm Pothier. "The pledge will be fulfilled over the four years."

Still, the tax cut was conspicuously absent from a throne speech this week that reaffirmed many campaign pledges.

Harper didn't mention it, either, in his address to the Commons kicking off debate on the throne speech.

Conservative sources told Canadian Press this week that delaying the tax was one of several belt-tightening measures being considered.

One leading economic observer has speculated Flaherty may choose to wait before starting to implement the tax break.

That's because government spending is expected to go well into a deficit next year as the Canadian economy stalls or slides into recession and Ottawa increase funding to blunt some of the effects.

Some private-sector analysts are projecting a shortfall of $10 billion or more.

New parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page projected Thursday that the Conservative government is headed for at least two years of deficits that will put it in the hole by $5.3 billion.

Finn Poschmann of the C.D. Howe Institute, a right-leaning economic think tank, said earlier this week that Flaherty might be tempted to find savings from delaying the tax break - especially now that fuel prices have plummeted.

However, diesel fuel prices have not dropped as far as gasoline's. Historically cheaper than gas, diesel now costs roughly 20 cents a litre more.

The U.S. Department of Energy's most recent forecast said diesel prices should remain low for the rest of the year.

Speaking during a news conference at a vegetable processing plant in Winnipeg earlier this fall, just two days after calling the election, Harper said the tax reduction is "modest, affordable and responds to real needs."

In New Brunswick during the election campaign, Conservative candidates - particularly in rural areas - highlighted the diesel fuel tax cut in contrast to the unpopular carbon tax proposed by the Liberals.

Industry groups also picked up on the contrast.

Peter Nelson, executive director of the Atlantic Provinces Trucking Association, called the tax break "huge" and "beyond the polar opposite of (Liberal Leader) Stéphane Dion's plan."

Flaherty will deliver a comprehensive fiscal update Thursday afternoon in the Commons.