A tight race in New Brunswick's rock star riding

Published Monday October 13th, 2008

Influence Grit and Tory candidates draw on celebrity power in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

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MONCTON - It may be the closest thing New Brunswick has to a rock star riding this federal election.

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Conservative candidate Daniel Allain has brought in former premier Bernard Lord and Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day. Liberal incumbent Brian Murphy called on Toronto Centre MP Bob Rae. And Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion made his second visit to the riding last Saturday, flanked by Murphy and several other sitting federal Grits from New Brunswick.

The same day, Prime Minister Stephen Harper spoke to a Moncton gymnasium with all 10 of his New Brunswick Tory candidates seated in the front row.

Thirty-six days of campaigning in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe has seen a who's who of political heavyweights, veterans with high profiles who used powerful words to persuade voters to support their party's hopefuls.

"It means that the Conservative Party of Canada believes in Greater Moncton," Allain said. "Stephen Harper was here to gain the seat, Stéphane Dion was here to save the furniture."

Those words are certainly new from Conservatives running in the riding. History shows a Liberal legacy of large margin victories.

Murphy won the riding decisively in 2006 by more than 8,400 votes. It has been 20 years since a Tory has held the federal seat, and a Conservative has won only four times in the past 36 years, though when it occurred it seemed easy. Claudette Bradshaw captured the riding in 1997, 2000 and 2004, winning twice by margins of more than 15,000 votes.

Before Bradshaw, the Liberals were guided by George Rideout, who won in 1993 by a 25,000 vote margin.

The Liberals are taking nothing for granted. And though it is tough to argue with an appearance by the prime minister, Murphy, the former Moncton mayor, poked a little bit of fun toward at least one of the Conservatives' visitors.

"I wanted Mr. Dion here to underline some of the basic Liberal principles that have been part of this riding for most of the time this riding has existed," Murphy said. "He came and underlined the importance of bilingualism, ACOA, and infrastructure funding while paying head to some local issues."

"The idea of Stockwell Day as a rock star is something I would really have to think about."

The Conservatives' best weapon seemed to be federal campaign co-chair and former New Brunswick premier Bernard Lord, who brought screaming cheers when called upon to introduce Allain, his former executive assistant, as Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe's new Tory leader, and later in the campaign when Lord introduced Harper at a boisterous, well-organized rally in Moncton.

"He was a great premier, and I am doing door-to-door right now and almost 50 per cent of the questions are related to provincial politics," Allain said. "I know who are the players, I have certainly great connections with my network with politicians, but I have great connections with non-profits."

Alison Ménard, an activist and lawyer and the riding's Green Party candidate says her campaign has pointed a finger at what she says has turned into a "who you know" election race.

"For me this election is about the politics of power versus the politics of values," Ménard said. "We have seen old style political parties sort of trot their stars through the riding.

"'I know people and you should vote for me because I know people.'"

Ménard sees the 2008 election as an opportunity to loosen a Liberal stranglehold, something she says is suffering from the perception that Dion is a weak leader, and the Greens' environmental policy taking centre stage.

She says her party's values fit directly into the two major issues that all candidates have had to address - restoration of the Petitcodiac River and the economy.

Strapped with a small campaign budget, Ménard says she has done everything else possible to gain persuade voters, including staking out street corners to stop citizens on their way to work for conversations about the issues.

Carl Bainbridge is running for the New Democrats in the riding. Born in Moncton, he has lived in Toronto and Vancouver while working in the film industry, before returning to the Hub City five years ago. Bainbridge is currently a self-employed driver contractor.

And while the Greens expect modest gains in Moncton, a Telegraph-Journal commissioned poll suggests a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives in the riding.

Murphy's time as mayor may serve him well, if history has any say. Municipal politics have historically played a large part in the minds of local voters. Of the last seven federal representatives to win the riding, four were elected after serving as mayor.

Murphy believes the Moncton area wants a strong community leader.

"Claudette proved that more than any of us. She wasn't mayor, but personal experience and popularity seems to be a hallmark of being an MP in Moncton," Murphy said. "There are very few Johnny-come-lately's. It was the community touch she had. It really comes down to community involvement."

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Comments (7)

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My prediction prior to election called:

1. Jack Layton, NDP, official opposition
2. Brian Murphy, Liberal, defeated
3. Domonic Leblanc, Liberal, defeated
4. Charles Hubbard, Liberal, defeated
5. Yvon Godin, NDP, re-elected
6. Liberals lose seat in Fredericton
7. Debate on Afghanistan after election
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JOSEPH BONNEVIE, Moncton on 13/10/08 08:42:17 AM AST
Joseph Bonnevie
This isn't a prediction, it's a wish list. Please address appropriately to Santa Claus, North Pole H0H 0H0.
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Jean-Paul Gallant, Moncton on 13/10/08 10:03:16 AM AST
Mr Bonnevie, I have offered to take you up on your predictions and you have never done so. I make only one prediction, the NDP will only have one seat in NB as in the previous election.
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J. R, Moncton, NB on 13/10/08 10:07:04 AM AST
Daniel Allain's debate performances have been so fantastically pitiful that the chances of him becoming Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe's next MP are slim-to-none. He is completely out of his league.
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Anonymous Anonymous, Moncton on 13/10/08 07:01:58 PM AST
Carl Bainbridge will win Moncton.
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John Blutarsky, Moncton on 13/10/08 09:58:39 PM AST
Well it doesn't matter how you slice it,Canadian Politics are
going the way of the Americans, in that personality slash and
bash hold more interest to the media, than the personal or partisan
national policies.

In one corner we have a rebel who took the western reform party,
and was able to merge it with the crippled national conservative
party and managed to score a minority government,

In the other corner, we have a Quebecer, who has a poor command
of the English language, who's only claim to fame is his constant
slips and falls, only to defend his position, by bashing the personal
character of Harper,In true American Form, other than offering
higher taxes, he has yet to actually show us his plan or policies.

In the middle we are left with the Environmentalists, the Unionist,
and the Separatists, Each with their own Special Interest Concerns.

Kind of makes it easy to figure out who will better serve our
National, Regional, and Local Collective Interests, eh!!
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T Forfar, Saint John on 14/10/08 12:56:42 AM AST
If polls are to be believed its the tories who are gonna take a bath here in NB. I think they can hope to retain 2 seats at best... IMO the ndp has a serious shot at a second seat. Godin's is solid of course...
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Pierre Cyr, Grand Falls on 14/10/08 01:02:19 AM AST
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