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Rob Linke
Telegraph-Journal

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The economy dominates as the election issue New Brunswick voters say matters most to them personally in a Corporate Research Associates poll.

That's no surprise, since the party leading in the Telegraph-Journal/CRA poll - the Conservative party, by 10 percentage points - has framed the ballot question as being about leadership and the economy since before the campaign began Sept. 7.

The economy has continued to dominate news during the campaign as well, thanks to the unfolding crisis in U.S., Canadian and international stock exchanges.

But how the parties and voters are now framing the economy question is changing rapidly, says a political scientist.

With Canadian businesses now having some difficulty getting credit, and people worrying about their losses in retirement savings, "fear has entered the equation.

"The economy is suddenly not abstract to people anymore," said Don Desserud, who teaches at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John.

"The question is not just 'who's the confident manager of the economy?' It's now also 'who is going to think about me?'

"That's a seismic shift in the campaign - and it could turn Dion's sensitivity into a strength instead of a weakness.

"If the Liberals stage a successful comeback after trailing so badly in the polls, that could be what people point to as a turning point."

Still, in the poll, the Conservatives were seen as the best at "dealing with tough economic times," preferred by 36 per cent to the Liberals' 24 per cent and the NDP's 12 per cent.

Dion is not getting much help from his centerpiece Green Shift policy, which would tax carbon emissions but offer tax breaks and benefits to lower-income earners and groups such as farmers and fishermen.

The new CRA poll, which surveyed 600 New Brunswickers from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, found 51 per cent of respondents opposed to the Liberal Green Shift.

That's higher than the 49 per cent of New Brunswickers who opposed it in a CRA poll in August.

Yet the undecided have shifted in larger proportions to supporting the Green Shift. Support for the policy was a mere 23 per cent in August but that has climbed to 35 per cent.

Health care ranks second behind the economy as the main concern of 13 per cent of voters in the province - despite being hardly talked about by national leaders during the campaign.

Pollster Don Mills said health care is always in the top two or three of unprompted answers about important issues, given that for many people throughout the province, it is a day-to-day concern.

The environment came in third, with eight per cent of voters saying it was the most important issue, followed by taxes (six per cent), job creation/unemployment (five per cent) and cost of energy/gas prices (five per cent).

The Green Party was respected as the party that would do the best job of protecting the environment, with 30 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 21 and the Conservatives at 17.

The parties were neck-and-neck as the best choice for health care, all within one point of 25 per cent.

The Conservatives were seen as the party that would do the best job on the war in Afghanistan, lowering personal taxes and dealing with crime by a third or more of voters.

Twenty-six per cent also saw them as best at dealing with heating and gas prices.