A11

Lisa Keenan

Stumble Upon

del.icio.us

Digg

Facebook

Print

Email

1 Comment(s)

I remember exactly where I was when the New Brunswick Conservatives lost the 2006 provincial election. I was in Moncton and it was Election Night 2003.

Enlarge Photo

Cindy Wilson/Telegraph-Journal Archives

Lone protestor Doug Parr marches outside of Old Government House, where a memorandum of understanding was signed that proposed selling most of NB Power to Hydro-Québec.

I doubt I'm betraying any confidences by noting that the June 2003 election had a pronounced effect on the provincial Tories. After rolling to power in the landslide 1999 vote, the New Brunswick Tories were badly shaken four years later, losing 16 seats to Shawn Graham's Liberals, including several leading cabinet ministers. Whereas previously the provincial Conservatives had focused on managing affairs, running government from the Centennial Building, in their second term (with a majority of one) the legislature took centre-stage for shaping government policy. Readers will recall there were several attempts to woo opposition members across the floor and byelections, as well as more than a few incidences gridlock at the Leg. The Tories, focused on the day-to-day, seemed to lose a bit of their mojo. I would still argue, though, that New Brunswick enjoyed better government in Lord's second term, as cabinet came to terms with governing in leaner economic times while still balancing budgets.

In 2003 the Lord Tories were undone by auto insurance, specifically rapidly rising insurance premiums that New Brunswickers were being charged. It was an issue that the government didn't see coming. They tried ever so diligently during the campaign to correct it, instituting their no-frills insurance policy, capping soft tissue claims and providing proof that public insurance was no more hassle-free than private insurance. It didn't matter; they paid for it at the polls.

Lightning, it's said, doesn't strike the same place twice. This is an aphorism that Premier Shawn Graham can take to the bank. If Liberal strategists are worried about being blindsided by some unseen issue in the next provincial election, they can put their fears aside. Whenever the next provincial vote rolls around, be it next month, next spring or next fall, there will only be one issue on voters' minds: the government's competence, or lack thereof. It's something that should concern Liberal strategists.

Since taking office in 2006, energy policy has been at the forefront of the Graham government's agenda. No minister was allowed to make a speech without extolling the energy hub around Saint John. Companies were canvassed to take part in the energy boom just around the corner. Plans were drawn up and partners chosen for a second nuclear reactor at Lepreau. Municipalities were told to prepare for rapid population growth, ramping up property taxes accordingly. The energy minister, a political novice, was brought into the orbit of close advisors to the premier. And NB Power?

Well, NB Power, although a bit rickety and rusty and carrying a fair bit of debt, was to be the centrepiece of the Graham government's energy growth strategy. Southern New Brunswick would be one big construction site for the next two decades, with NB Power writing lots of cheques and selling lots of power. Even after the second tranche of Liberal strategy, the much-vaunted Self-Sufficiency Agenda, was dropped from ministerial speeches, they still talked about growth through energy policy. Until last Thursday, that is. Since then, disposing of NB Power is now the key to attaining self-sufficiency.

Last Thursday's announcement of the proposed takeover of NB Power by Hydro-Quebec (it's not a sale, as selling implies New Brunswick receiving something for its assets) was also the obituary of the Graham government's energy policy. All the plans, all the strategies, all the money spent (from the Benefits Blueprint and the gas pipeline for northern N.B. to Lepreau II) are now as dead as Monty Python's parrot.

The premier and his ministers have been making much of NB Power's debt of late. But NB Power's debt, all $4 billion-plus, is only slightly larger than it was when the Liberals took power. Meanwhile that other debt, the government debt, has exploded on Graham's watch. From $6.5 billion in the final year of Tory rule, government debt will pass $8 billion next month and be well over $9 billion when the books close on fiscal year 2010. That's an increase of about 40 per cent in four years.

Failure to control spending has been a hallmark of Liberal governments in New Brunswick. Shawn Graham's has been no different. But with the province's credit rating dropping, it will be tougher to borrow in the years ahead. Hence the NB Power giveaway. The Grits are clearly hoping that clearing NB Power's debt will enable them to keep borrowing on favourable terms.

There shouldn't be any doubt that last week's announcement will resonate clearly when it comes time for voters to cast their ballots. In fobbing off NB Power to a rival utility, the Graham government has not only reversed policy, it's given away the New Brunswick farm (mortgaged though it is) to pay for its own poor policy choices, without consultation.

Come election time, the NB Power decision will be first on the list of issues by which voters judge the competence of the Liberal government (alongside the Saint John Polytechnic, Early French Immersion, the St. John River ferries, the Finn Report on municipalities, etc...).

I remember exactly where I was the day the New Brunswick Liberals lost the 2010 provincial election. It was October 29, 2009, the day they proposed handing NB Power over to Hydro-Québec.

Lisa Keenan of Saint John is a lawyer and the former president of the New Brunswick Progressive Conservative Party. Her column appears on Friday.