A4

Tara Brautigam
THE CANADIAN PRESS

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ST. JOHN'S, N.L. - A Conservative radio ad in Newfoundland and Labrador provides an insight into the party's fear of being shut out from the province after the federal election.

"We're facing big issues this election, but none bigger than whether we're going to take up our role in the next federal government," says Craig Westcott, a Tory candidate in St. John's East.

"Voting ABC will hurt Ottawa, but it will hurt Newfoundland even more. Isolating ourselves from Canada is not an option."

Premier Danny Williams and his so-called Anything But Conservative campaign have gnawed away at the party's foundation in the province. The co-chairman of the Conservative campaign in Newfoundland recently blamed the premier's offensive for the party's struggles in fundraising and recruiting volunteers.

There has been growing debate on radio call-in shows on the impact of a "big goose egg," as Williams has characterized it, if the Conservatives win the Oct. 14 election but the province elects only opposition MPs.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay, who was campaigning Sunday with Conservative candidates in Newfoundland, suggested the province could lose out on investments if it doesn't elect a Tory.

"Certainly having a voice at the cabinet table makes a big difference," said MacKay, who represents Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island at the federal cabinet table.

"If your voice is not there, it's not heard. That's just the sad reality ... you don't want a mainlander representing you here on Newfoundland and Labrador."

But Williams has argued that even with federal government representation, the province has been short changed, so he is calling on Newfoundlanders to "stand together" and oust the Conservatives.

It is rare for a province not to elect any governing members.

In seven federal elections since 1984, only two provinces have done it - Prince Edward Island in 1988 and 2006, and Nova Scotia in 1997.

Jeff MacLeod, a political studies professor at Mount Saint Vincent University in Halifax, said the lack of government representation in Ottawa can have consequences for a province, such as delays in funding projects.

"It does contribute in general to a sense of political isolation," MacLeod said.

"Dialogue doesn't take place.

"You can see relationships not working and that can influence the bureaucracy and you can lose out on programs and various initiatives as a result.

"People are human."

The federal government has never been shut out from Newfoundland and Labrador and the prospects of that scenario may never have been better.

Conservative incumbent Fabian Manning is the party's best hope at retaining a presence in the province, but he is waging a tough battle in the Avalon riding against Liberal party candidate Scott Andrews.